NFL Week 2

Tough week for punters, as most of the favourites are playing away, and some key match ups that are very difficult to call.  Add to that some close games from last week, in which apparent easy beats pushed the favourites, so there is no form to read, as is always the case this early in the season.  Bookies this week are giving very skinny odds for home favourites, so I will have to consider some lines to get value, or punt big. 

Last week was good to me, although there were a couple of games that went a bit too close for a punters' liking.  This week I like, GB, Tenn and Washington to have good wins.  I also like Atlanta, Philly and Pittsburgh to win close games.

AFL / NRL

This week I'm going to back Parra (1.40) for the win over GC.  I'm also looking at H2H vs tryscoring
J Hayne (2.50) v K Gordon & L Burt (2.50) v P Campbell.  I also like the time 1st try scored option -7.59 min or + 8 min.  I like the +8 min, especially in the Bris v STG game @ 1.65.  I will stay awy from tne h2h for the Bris v STG, I think it is too close to call, but I am leaning towards a Broncos victory - this will blow out my futures STG to win the premiership.  I am thinking of throwing the Raiders U20 to beat Tigers @ 1.50 into a speccy multi.  Raiders has a good win against Manly last week, and Lui is the Tigs main man, and he is walking on 1 leg.  Tigers were belted by GC last week as well.

Favourites in the AFL are ovbvious, but odds are too short for mine, especially for STK.  I think the Cats v C/wood will go to the wire, so I like the option of either team to win by less than 15.5 @ 3.20.

NFL odds Week 1

Teams I am going to bet on this week include

Steelers, Pats, Chargers, Falcons, Ravens, Colts, Saints.

They are obvious choices, and the odds for these teams h2h aren't great, so I am going to mix them up with a couple of different bets, both H2H and Line.  I'll also have a couple of AFL and NRL tags to throw in there, which will bump up the multi odds.  I'm hoping for a 7-1 'banker', but will also have a couple of speculators running. 

I did consider the Cards as well, and they should get home, but I want to see how they play first.  Plus I am already probably overextending myself with my current intended bets....

NFL Week 1

I like the Pats, Steelers, Chargers and Saints to get big wins.  The line should offer good value.  I also like the Falcons and the Cardinals to start thier campaigns with a win.  Look forward to seeing what odds we get...

NRL / AFL

I like Melb (1.85) to beat Manly (1.95) and STG (1.55) to beat Parra (2.40).  GC v Bris will be full on.  Bris deserve to start favourites, but playing at Robina is just what the Titans want.  Good odds for Newcastle to upset the dogs, who struggled last week without Kimmorley.

Western Bulldogs are too short (1.28) for mine h2h.  Maybe a margin or line bet, but I think they get home against the Lions.  Adelaide (1.75) v Collingwood (2.00) is shaping to be a close game.  Again, a line or margin of 1-39 could be the best for this one.

Just waiting for the Line / margin odds....

MOTO GP - San Marino

It seems everything to do with Moto GP is a 3 horse race, with a DNF being the only thing that can stop the apparent podium.  It's hard to back against Rossi, as it seems if he stays on his bike he wins (he will be dirty with his Indy DNF last start).  At 2.20 to win his home GP, I think it is good odds, and could work wonders as a tag to a multi.  All this said, we haven't even started QF yet..... 

GOLF - Deutche Bank, Boston

Apart from Tiger, Steve Stricker (21.00)and Vijay (51.00) have had good success at this course in recent tournaments.  Phil Mickelson (31.00) also knows how to win at this course.  Decent odds, can be found with the Top 5, and Top 10 finish.  I'm not sure if Vijay has the current form to match, however Steve Stricker is going well, and could be the man to get a bet on. 

AUST. WE 6TH SEPT.

AFL FINALS - Plenty of good odds around, especially h2h if you think you can pick the winner.  Bookies can't seem to split them too far, apart from Adelaide v Essendon.  Essondon at the line with a 39.5 start looks good for a finals game.  Injuries and suspensions are the problem.  If you fancy Essendon for the upset, -39.5 margin is paying 7.00+.

I expect close games Geelong v WB, Bris v Carlton, STK v Collingwood.  Bookies are paying 3.15+ if you pick the either team by less than bet.  The less than points for all 3 games is 15.5.  Pays well if these games go to a thriller.

NRL ROUND 26 - Final regular season round.  A whole host of good odds on offer.  You will get plenty if you back the Titans to beat Manly - h2h alone is 3.40.  At the line (8.5) and 1-12 margin also paying well.  Cronulla are also paying well h2h (1.80) to beat the Bunnies at home, also 2.05 for -2.5 line.  Brisbane at the line -13.5 to beat Canberra is also of interest.  Surely NQ can take care of the all out of sorts Roosters h2h paying 1.95.  Roosters will be playing on emotion with a couple of farewells though.  Dragons v Eels looks a likely thriller.  A 1-12 margin for both is paying 3.00 + for each.

TRI NATIONS - Tough to go past SA again.  There is still fight in the wounded Wallaby, but SA h2h (1.50) looks good, maybe a margin bet to increase the odds.  First scoring play is always a good option (2.90) for a penalty goal to either side, as a penalty is more often than not the first scoring play in Int'l Rugby.